Long Windup to IoTLong Windup to IoT
The next big IoT push is going to take a lot more effort, leadership, and viable business plans than what we've seen to date.
September 19, 2017
The Internet of Things (IoT) has become one of the great buzzwords of our time, warranted by the tremendous promise it holds for everything from energy-efficient smart cities to vastly improved home health care for an aging population and any number of time-saving services and conveniences. IoT probably has as much potential for changing people's lives for the better than anything else we're dealing with in the tech space. However, getting from where we are with IoT to delivering on those big promises is going to take vison, determination, and management.
First, let's clear up a few misperceptions about IoT.
IoT is a Radical New Idea -- Not quite. Many of the forward-looking applications for IoT take their roots from Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) applications that appeared in the latter half of the last century. This is when we began putting process control systems in factories. For pipelines, electrical substations, and other remote operations, we ran teletype circuits to sensors that monitored temperature and pressure and allowed remote engineers to reset breakers and exert other controls. What's changed is the sophistication of the controllers and the fact that we are now able to control these with wide-area wireless connections rather than fixed teletype circuits.
IoT is Right Around the Corner -- IoT is here, even if the name hasn't caught up. The mobile operators claim to have tens of millions of IoT lines deployed in the U.S. Many of these are part of automobile-related programs like the OnStar network, BMW Assist, or Progressive's Snapshot driver monitoring system. If you were to include smartphone apps like Waze or Google Maps, the number of IoT connections might reach 100 million. For decades, farmers have been putting RFID collars on livestock to ensure they are eating and to identify health problems. Telemedicine is already going mainstream, though most of that is simply trading on existing video conferencing capabilities -- large-scale out-of-hospital patient monitoring is still in its infancy.
We Will See Widespread Adoption of Next-Generation IoT Apps with Significant Societal Payoffs in the Next Five Years -- This might be a stretch. The IoT apps we have today depend on smartphones, purpose-built end devices, and wide-area wireless network services designed for applications other than IoT. Networks like OnStar, for example, were designed to support a particular range of applications, in a particular market, and with a distinct profit motive (i.e., enhance the value of x). Smartphone-based IoT apps were designed to meet a defined need with monetization plans based on advertising or other targeted audiences.
What Constitutes an IoT Solution?
Three essential components comprise an IoT solution:
Endpoints -- These are either sensors or a combination of sensors and actuators that report on or control a function on a local basis and potentially respond to commands from the back-office system like triggering an actuator or displaying a text
Networks -- This is the communication infrastructure that connects the endpoint to the back-office processing systems
Back-Office Processing: These are the computer systems that receive inputs from the endpoints, analyze the information, and either report it (to the endpoint or some higher-level processing function) or release a command that actuates some function
The most prevalent IoT endpoint today is a smartphone, and the key data point it reports is location. Fleet management and in-vehicle IoT systems like OnStar and Progressive's Snapshot use specialized endpoints either embedded in or connected to the vehicle, typically via the on-board diagnostic port. We are starting to see the emergence of a whole market for IoT endpoints capable of reporting temperature, pressure, door status (open/closed), proximity, and any number of other status states.
As we noted above, any number of network alternatives are proposed for IoT applications. While teletype circuits are an unlikely option for this modern era, Ethernet could be a viable alternative for stationary terminals, with Power over Ethernet providing a power source for IoT endpoints. Wireless holds the greatest promise, and most applications today are using Wi-Fi (Wi-Fi HaLow), Bluetooth (Thread) or 3G/4G cellular (NarrowBand IoT). T-Mobile and other mobile operators are already announcing plans to pilot test NarrowBand IoT.
All of us who work in the networking field should recognize that no single network solution will address the full range of IoT applications. One application might require battery life to extend 10 years, while another might require high bandwidth 24/7/365 for video monitoring. Some will require short bursts of data from one to a dozen times a day, while others will call for transmission ranges of dozens of miles... or maybe just a few yards. Designers will need to understand the nuances of their IoT applications and look for the most reasonable and cost-effective means to serve them.
Back-office systems will be key in delivering IoT value, but I see that as the smallest of our technical challenges. With what we have seen in development of cloud-based services, I'm quite convinced that whatever we conceive for IoT-based applications, we'll have no trouble finding someone who can develop it.
Continue to next page: Two Key Ingredients for Next-Gen IoT
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Two Key Ingredients for Next-Gen IoT
The availability of special-purpose IoT devices developed for relatively low-volume applications should tell us that few obstacles stand in the way of developing endpoints to serve any range of large-volume applications. Similarly, both private (e.g., Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, ZigBee, etc.) and public (e.g., 3G/4G/5G) wireless network providers are itching to get a piece of the emerging IoT pie. The mobile operators, in particular, are chomping at the bit to get into the IoT race. Doing so, they hope, will help them better deal with stagnating growth rates -- stemming from market saturation and lower ARPU driven by an intensifying price war -- for their traditional offerings.
IoT doesn't want for technology, but it does need two elements if it's to achieve business viability:
Visionaries who can identify the possibilities and who possess the technical and business savvy needed to make those a reality
Business plans for monetizing these opportunities
Without a doubt, marketing departments have fully embraced IoT, as we can see on any UC vendor website. NEC is something of a standout in this, with real-world examples to illustrate how its visual recognition and other technologies can drive IoT applications.
While we have seen plenty pieces of solutions, what we really need are the people who can assemble and deliver them. IBM is taking a stab at this, and reinforcing the message with TV ads touting the Watson element. Indeed, analytics are going to be one of the major byproducts of IoT, and IBM has made major investments on that front.
In the end, however, great ideas are all well and good, but you still have to pay the rent. Having a great IoT application idea is little more than a high school science project unless you can come up with a way to monetize it. In some cases, particularly Industrial IoT (IIoT), the benefit can come in the form of reduced maintenance costs, greater efficiencies, and other hard-dollar savings. Other monetization strategies may call for more creativity.
In health care, providers are often strapped for cash, but insurance companies are in a different position. Monetization can come from payers that benefit when IoT sensors monitor patients with an eye on reducing hospital stays and treatment costs -- not to mention making people healthier. Progressive recognized the benefit of insuring safer drivers, and came up with the Snapshot program to identify them.
Crowd-sourcing capabilities like Waze and Google Maps can add a money-making component to a "free" service, either through advertising, paid commercial spin-offs, or providing information on the actions and movements of the "free" subscribers to those with an interest in knowing more about existing or potential customers. Clearly, someone had better be paying attention to the privacy considerations surrounding those activities.
Conclusion
It's safe to say that IoT is here, and we have more than a few examples to illustrate that. By the same token, we still have a ways to go before we see the enormous impacts that IoT can deliver over the long run. I devote little of my attention to the legions who have seized upon IoT as the latest buzzword to decorate their PowerPoint presentations, but I am constantly on the lookout for the creative business people who will make billions delivering this next generation of technological capabilities.
There will be technical challenges, just as with anything, but the greater challenges will be imagination, business savvy, and managing the societal implications like personal freedom and privacy.
Those of us involved in the technology fields should be itching to get involved in what is going to be our next great adventure.
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@dBrnWireless
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