Is The Sky Falling?Is The Sky Falling?

Every other year, or now yearly, it seems, someone rings the death bell of the TDM PBX. Each time the bell sounds a little louder, and after Stephen Leaden posted an article, I asked my buddy Eric, “Is the Sky Falling?” I sent him my old faithful list of TDM PBX resources because I know some of the gear cited is still available. Then, the reply I got from Eric meant, he wanted me to get to work- and put together a post.

But what got my attention from the article Are You Still On TDM? You Could Be On Death Row by Stephen Leaden, (he’s an IT guy) is the list of the products being discontinued by manufacturers. So I looked at the list again and concluded, the gear is long past its prime. Then, I noted that some of the products aren’t really exclusive to Large-enterprise gear. While L-enterprise may use this gear at smaller locations, a lot of it resides in the SMB/E space that I play in.

Several of the products listed (Axxess, Dimension, Fujitsu, Intecom, Rolm, Strata) shouldn’t impact any significant market share of the installed base. I realize some of the gear is still out there, but come on, Dimension, Intecom, ROLM and Strata PBXs? Good grief, I was taking this gear out of service through 2000. Given these aged examples, the list should read “…Are On Death Row.”

[Editor's note: Aastra Intecom took issue with Matt's characterization here, and sent us the following clarification:

Intecom, unlike the rest of the systems mentioned in the article is alive, well, profitable and continuing to effectively serve our target markets. Since 2005 Intecom has been a part of Aastra, a large and growing company focused entirely on Enterprise IP communications. In fact Aastra just assumed the number 1 position in the PBX market in Europe with over 16% of the market. As a result we have more resources than ever to bring to bear on the unique communications issues faced by large enterprises.

Intecom has been in the PBX business specializing in large enterprises for almost 30 years, in that time we have end-of-manufactured only two systems; the original 1980 vintage IBX and the mid-market Telari. Perhaps these are the systems Matt was de-installing in 2000. Our customers tend to be very loyal and many of our IBX customers upgraded to the Intecom E beginning in 1993 without replacing phones or training. The E was replaced in 2001 by Pointspan which used the vast majority of the E hardware for its TDM capabilities, all of which are still in active manufacture. Today Intecom customers enjoy the choice of the hybrid IP telephony environment of Pointspan or the fully SIP-to-the-core open unified communications environment of Clearspan. In either case the choice to replace the users desktop device depends solely on the timing that suites the customer best.]

So, I agree with Stephen in part, but the outlook for TDM isn’t exactly what I’d coin as a near death experience for all users of TDM.

As it is, these systems and numerous others just like the ones named are still in and hard at work in other companies too, and it’s not just because these user companies are “laggards” in adopting new technology- it’s because they want replacement technology that’s as good or better. Other underlying reasons may be they’re not ready to deal with the frustration and disruption associated with changing a telephone system; cash flow; they’re too busy planning and improving their existing infrastructures; or maybe some of them are happy with how things are.

Then, how often does Corporate knowingly cut off funds because they know they are going to cease operations or shut down an office elsewhere? L-enterprises haven’t, I hope, lost the art of moving assets around. Oftentimes, the needs of the organization, not the IT department, dictate that a system be de-installed from one location and re-used at another.

All the trimmings Stephen associated with VoIP aren’t always in the business plan, especially in certain industries where getting “instant communications” via the Internet isn’t likely to be real useful--in industrial situations when you need explosion proof telephones available 24x7 for emergencies, track-side call boxes, ring down phones, or even the elevator phones. While they each may carry benefits, it doesn’t require ramming UC down the throats of users because we can--but its starting to sound more and more like IT departments are going to say, “because we will.”

How much communications of any kind can a human being endure? My greatest concern with UC is the demise of the separation we all experience in our lives between professional (work) and private (personal) time. Clearly, with cell phones, IM, email, chat and now UC; when can we find the time to decompress? Our societal structure for compensation and work has pretty much remained the same. Our lives are so disrupted by technology, including “instant communications,” that we have a huge imbalance.

We are far from that utopian view that the characters in Star Trek portray. Communicator badges will be great so long as they can be turned off, taken off or put in Do Not Disturb (DND) mode. This is the great disparity today- we aren’t turning things off, we are turning them on and drowning in them.

So as managers of the most valued assets--people--we are missing the mark, and people are being suffocated with immediate communications, reachability, presence or whatever other term we can dream up for connecting them.

Then, IT time vs TDM timelines are inherently different, even opposed. This isn’t, I think, easy for IT people to understand- thus we keep hearing “this is the end” announcements from them. Now for argument’s sake, let’s say your system is on the list. The economy is on a downward trend--call it what you like. Now is a great time, IMHO, to consider replacement- you just may have a little more power to negotiate slightly better deals during a down economy. Again, business needs will dictate, not proclamations.

So I hit a few statistical databases and checked the TDM inventory pulses through my sources. I found some articles refreshing because they were kinder to those “PBX types,” referring to them as “…and caring for the enterprise’s PBX assets with skilled technicians that know the PBX like the backs of their hands.” Can the majority of IP-PBX (physical, hosted, virtual) installers and caretakers truly say the same?

The supply side of TDM gear is still big. A1 Teletronics has exhibited at VoiceCon for a number of years and they still supply TDM along with IP wares, as do scores of others. There are others advertising at Telecom Finders and Telecom Reseller, along with companies still active in the buying/selling and maintaining of TDM. Many of these folks have support services and more than likely, many of you reading already know this and already use their services.

Next, I decided to call upon my all-time favorite: Telecom Gear (aka The Gear, since 1983) 1-800-964-4327. I think Jessica Evans over at “The Gear” was just as surprised and unaffected to hear “more of the same” of the death bell of TDM. Jessica said, “We’re still open for business!”

Notice the list on the article does not include Norstar, Nortel’s- best selling TDM box. Then, Avaya’s Partner, another TDM box, both of which are ALIVE and WELL! Sales are still going strong and rightly so because both of these systems are rock solid, they aren’t spending time proving their salt or claiming, “We think we finally got it right.” This doesn’t mean these boxes will remain the same, either- they are changing. Avaya is already planning something for the Partner product and it will be big, or should I say IP capable? These two systems are keystones in the industry. Show me one keystone IPT system.

MARKET SHARES

Granted, these are SMB systems (and L-enterprise may use them in smaller offices too). But folks including those in L-enterprise need to come to terms with the fact that L-enterprise TDM systems’ market share represents a small percentage of these systems. You may buy big, but you’re not big in the scheme of the US market. The SMB space is where the money is, and I’d question- are you guys still loss leaders for the telephony manufacturers? I don’t know the answer and I do have suspicions, but the same lessons learned years earlier will likely crop up again in the IP space. This may sound arrogant--but not by design or intention.

The other thing that folks are neglecting is the size of the embedded TDM market in the US. By just looking around- if TDM is dead or dying, then why am I seeing so many Model-T’s (TDM systems) all over the place as the norm, instead of seeing mostly IPT systems? Scrub Bank of America, then you see a lot less of Cisco’s visibility. Avaya and Nortel, in spite of themselves, good times and bad ones or Cisco’s marketing mania, are still highly visible products and respected brands as are Mitel, NEC, and Panasonic. So the jury is still out on who dominates- and even then, it depends on whose Kool Aid you’re drinking, what line/port size systems you’re comparing and whose statistics you believe. To me, it’s hard to say and we won’t know for some time who’s really winning the hearts of the market.

The realistic point I want to make is that TDM is alive, remains heavily embedded and continues working well. While new systems shipped are mostly IP--either pure IP-PBXs, IP-Hybrid or just IP phones for hosted models--you need to understand that everyone in a business or organization just doesn’t throw out their gear because it’s old, TDM or because you declare IT is taking over. That isn’t part of the business process and this shouldn’t be too surprising to you.

So just how long will legacy TDM stick around?

The huge differentiator in the existing embedded telephony market is between line/port sizes. This is where dollars and sense must meet to sustain the business, not the desires of the IT guy. It’s not always practical to converge the voice and data in SMB even still, after how many years and frivolous announcements that VoIP is improving? These declarations remind me of Hollywood people patting themselves on the back, discussing what they did right, how wonderful the other guy is and all the while ignoring the real world.

But while the other arguments of Stephen’s article didn’t surprise me, they did reaffirm once again, at least, the L-enterprise’s mind set for its exodus away from TDM. My comments are in italics:

Provided of course that you can afford and are successful in the attempt to stabilize the adopted VoIP technology and in so doing, you don’t erode the key benefit: cost. Then, because you can deploy VoIP, your survivability isn’t necessarily better than TDM but often lesser, as is the ability to maintain perceived quality of the former TDM wares. Even still- if you don’t achieve a level of service that rises above and beyond that of TDM technology, then what have you accomplished? How many nines’ reliability do you actually achieve? Newer doesn’t always mean better. Stable must include terms such as security, threats, vulnerabilities, work-arounds, patches, change management, product life, product life cycle, asset life- just to name a few. All in all, VoIP is not a mature technology, but more like a “TWEEN.”

This is strange, since IT products are commodities.

My argument has been all along that VoIP in the L-enterprise is a political power move- something more to justify the IT department. The guy writing “IT Doesn’t Matter,” like it or not, has some significant points. IT’s turn in the evolution of business is coming…. Then, if you read IBM’s prediction, they “foresee no emails, phones nor PCs.” I understand IT’s quest to conquer telecom but IT doesn’t understand that many, if not most SMBs, simply don’t want more conquering and dividing- they just want their phones to work.

SUPPLYING AND SUPPORTING TDM

So- are supply and support side TDM systems causing you sleepless nights?

There are more than a handful of companies servicing old gear along with the new gear too--- IP or not, they do it all. What I do discourage is the “fear-sale” tactic, and AT&T did it best back in their day with L-enterprise telephony accounts. Most of us remember: “No one got fired for recommending AT&T.” I remember having to educate executives on who Northern Telecom was- and that was in the early through mid-1980s. I also remember kicking out the wolves from the national account team and giving them stern warnings about their own agendas. Telecom, it seems, hasn’t changed so much; these new guys and their sales schmooze are just at a different level than 20 years ago.

Openly, I don’t encourage waiting too long; and I wouldn’t want to give the impression of moving too quickly either. You should already know the life expectancy and supportability of your existing telephone system, if you don’t then you are playing with fire.

Of course my buddy Eric says to me “…is this (My old Faithful List) a viable medium-to-long term plan for L-enterprises?”

Yes! Definitively yes. This (support and maintenance of the old) is a huge business in telephony, and I don’t see TDM gear evaporating as rapidly--though obviously some of the less popular gear will. This doesn’t mean that you don’t exercise scrutiny and it doesn’t mean you go overboard either. The business needs always come first. Resellers on both sides of the market (TDM and IPT) know what’s good unless they err, and that is very costly to them.

So, what will change is who carries inventories of specific IPT gear, and it will be price sensitive, especially if the manufacturer does not have adequate policies in force for gray/after-market gear. Nortel recognized this years ago and acted on it, which is why you can still get Option 11 and other gear today. While I’m speaking of the gray market, understand that this is another huge business that goes with the territory, and take note that many of these companies do sell on ebay. Some such as Cisco and Mitel have a different attitude, and that is protecting the revenue of their resellers. This isn’t a bad thing, it’s like anything else- how far will you go to achieve your ends?

So, again we get back to the issue, is the TDM sky falling?

Maybe if you’re a PBX user and find your product on this list, it may seem this way. Or, if you’re a TDM dealer invested in the past, refusing to invest in the future. When the manufacturers discontinue or put an end-of-life tag on TDM gear, they will continue to provide support for a period of time afterwards. The reality is, while those dark bells keep tolling out bleak signs for the TDM wares, there are still vast numbers of systems out there in need of support and maintenance whether it’s been discontinued by the manufacturer or not.

Manufacturers simply aren’t the primary mechanisms for support anyway. As much as a surprise it maybe to some, it simply isn’t so. Manufacturers do have a way of making old gear disappear, especially if it means creation of new revenue streams.

While I don’t disagree on replacing really aged systems, it’s ultimately the customer that decides when to replace, what will get replaced and who will perform the work. Customers including L-enterprise should know right now (today or any other day) whether or not the existing service and support is adequate, and should have a good sense for how long support will suffice, as well as the durability of the installed gear. If they don’t, then they’ve got their heads buried in the sand. Everyone in an organization knows when the telephone system is hitting bottom. A good provider won’t lead you into errant thinking or a false sense of security about supporting your existing TDM gear.

WHAT'S WRONG WITH BETTER, FASTER, CHEAPER?

VARS, Interconnects and even customers have used all the means available to save capital. Who in enterprise is willing to say they haven't in the past or won't in the future?

TDM is a HUGE business. TDM prices are not going up, did not go up because of availability and won’t likely go up because of age. Dare to compare the past 10 or even 20 years and you will find stability in the numbers. The numbers, not the emotion or rhetoric, reveal this. I’ve said for several years here and at the former VoIPLoop that TDM prices continue to offer the best deals and continue to do so. Viability of an aging system is something that every customer comes to terms with, and this includes early IPT systems that we deployed. We still have a few old IPT boxes out there- while most have been replaced with a HYBRID except one- and this one exception is a hosted solution. The customer replaced the “pure IP-PBX” with a hosted model- one that they are the primary VC source of funding for by the way.

Business shuffles assets to and fro- from one place to another. Why should telephone assets be any different? The market isn't depleted of good personnel knowing how to install, configure and maintain TDM gear. In fact, I’d argue that it’s just the opposite. The concern of having qualified and enough qualified and experienced personnel in IPT isn’t just another transparency of service in the industry, but it’s more like blind love. I hear you when you say IPT is better but the reality is that people with the experience and qualifications are still in short supply. Couple this with the complexity of IPT, and realism kicks in while fairy tales begin to fade very rapidly. IPT isn’t easy and like I said at VoiceCon in Orlando, telephony has taken a real turn now that we have Doctors to fix it.

IPT is young and the experience in the industry is not by any means evolved unless of course you carry the title of Doctor and the title of IPT. I’m referring to Fiona Lodge attending and presenting at IPT Troubleshooting in Orlando last month. She knows, as do the carriers, the business including IPT, and they sit comfortably at a distance from the L-enterprise that wants to be its own telephone company. In essence- how much you want to be your own telephony company is what you are ultimately deciding, and then delegating to IT to carry out and deliver, and Fiona and the carriers understand this. Then, there are only so many Cisco IPT engineers and that’s why they command base salaries upward of $200K. Show me a PBX guy commanding these salaries.

Still, it seems every other year is another proclamation that TDM is dead! Watch out- Dead Man Walking. Those dead men walking are still viable and profitable. I believe my other buddies in the business are right on when they tell me that it will take years to displace the TDM gear in place today- and these conversations date as far back as the late 1990’s. A great example of this is the Social Security Administration and Nortel’s effort to change the SSA over to IP- it’s a massive (and late, much needed), ten-year initial contract deployment. I know their telephony hardware is aging, I remember their gear going in service in the mid-1980’s.

Still, I wouldn’t be so bold as to give a date for the last TDM system to be removed from service, but I would believe it to be reasonable to expect soon, that TDM systems will no longer be manufactured. When? A poll of all the manufacturers would prove very interesting.

So as much as a surprise as this is going to be for some of you: IP is not the solution, IP is not the only solution, but it remains that IP is a solution adrift in a huge sea of opportunity. HYBRID however, is still leading the pack and still attracts the masses leaps and bounds above the “pure-IP systems.” Why? Maybe, just because it’s so practical.

But still, change takes time and life it is said that life is wasted on youth. So, from where I sit, the IP kid isn’t king yet and every time an IT guy declares it so, take a look around. Stop gauging what’s being shipped--that’s a no brainer; it will have an element of IP unless of course it’s a “pure TDM” deal, which may be less common.

As a last note- personally and professionally I want it all in IPT. Lower cost, ease of installation and maintenance, better profits, better returns, longer life span, higher reliability, better quality (better, faster, cheaper) and I don’t care if it’s Hybrid, pure IP or something else. Some say my expectations are too high.

But what I really, really want- is more like what IBM predicts: no more email, phones nor PCs and you can bet that the virtual office is being driven by a key factor, and that is environmentalism. So if you’re thinking I’m hanging on to old technology, then think again. I’ll be happy with my communicator badge so long as it has an off, DND or GO-AWAY button. Then, I’ll gladly lead the charge to hoist the skull and cross-bones flag myself, declare the death of TDM, and throw a party in honor of it. Don’t expect me to do too much more because I’ll likely still be hanging onto my old antiques of art until “you pry them from my cold dead hands.” By then, will a new league will have emerged from the dust of the legacy TDM days. Then, you too can stop and think about who’s left standing and Counting Coup and maybe one day these IT guys proclaiming the death of TDM will have a legacy of their own to brag about.

OLD FAITHFUL LIST FOR PROCUREMENT (NOT JUST PARTS)